Once you find out who your judge is, the first question is unavoidable: how many cases do they approve? The number exists and it is public, but it is easy to misread. This guide explains what it really measures, where it comes from, and what you can do with it without drawing the wrong conclusions.
What the rate measures
The approval rate (or its mirror, the denial rate) is the share of a judge's asylum decisions that ended with asylum granted, out of all the merits decisions that judge issued over a period. It is calculated from EOIR's own records, which publish per-case data without names, and it is compiled by organizations such as TRAC, a research center at Syracuse University that maintains judge-by-judge reports.
What MigraConnect shows in the court lookup is exactly that: your judge's asylum decisions, split into asylum granted, other relief granted and denials, with the period they cover. They are historical, informational statistics; they do not predict the outcome of your case.
Why two judges have such different rates
Rates range from near 0% to over 90% depending on the judge, and most of that gap is not "a good judge and a bad judge". What drives it:
- The court and its docket. A judge who only sees detained cases, or cases from a nationality with few grants, will have a low rate even while applying the law the same way as another.
- Representation. People with a lawyer win asylum far more often than those who represent themselves. A court where few people have lawyers will show lower rates.
- Nationality and case type. Rates vary a lot by country of origin, because the conditions that need to be proven change.
- The period. A new judge has few decisions and an unstable rate; a policy change can move the figures from one year to the next.
- What counts as a decision. Some counts include only asylum; others add withholding of removal and Convention Against Torture protection as "other relief". Closed, terminated or withdrawn cases are not counted.
That is why a judge's rate says more about their court and workload than about what they will do with your particular case.
How to use it well
- As context, not as a forecast. A judge with a low rate is not denying your case in advance, and one with a high rate is not approving it. Your case is decided on your facts and your evidence.
- To calibrate your preparation. Before a demanding judge, documentation matters more: country conditions evidence, detailed declarations, expert witnesses, consistency between your written statement and your testimony.
- To talk with your representative. Ask what this judge is like: how they run hearings, which deadlines they enforce, whether they tend to decide orally, how much weight a certain kind of evidence carries in their courtroom.
- To choose representation wisely. If the difference between having and not having a lawyer is the largest of all the variables, that is the best use of your energy.
When your judge changes
Judges retire, transfer or take on other calendars, and your case can move to another judge at any time, with other statistics and other habits. That change usually comes with a new hearing date. MigraConnect shows the assigned judge, and with MigraConnect+ you get an alert when a judge is assigned or changed and when the date changes.
Common questions
Where does MigraConnect's data come from?
From the public decision records of the immigration courts, aggregated by judge. It is presented as historical information.
Does a judge with a 90% denial rate mean I will lose?
No. It means that, among the cases that judge decided in that period, nine out of ten ended in a denial. Your case depends on your facts, your evidence and your representation.
Does the rate include cases that were closed or terminated?
Usually not. Only merits decisions (granted or denied) count. A judge who closes many cases through other routes can have a rate that does not reflect all of their work.
Where do I see my judge's rate?
In MigraConnect's court lookup, with your A-Number and nationality, next to your next hearing. And in TRAC's public reports.
This guide is informational and does not replace advice from a lawyer or an accredited representative.